“This [recession] is going to be very deep”.

“It’s even worse than the GFC”.

That’s a couple of recent quotes from our Facebook Page. It’s been riddled with comments from people everywhere, fearful about what’s currently happening.

It’s upsetting me. So let me tell you what happened to me. Cause I don’t want it to happen to you, next time.

Back in 2009, during the GFC, my family’s business endured some really tough times. Things that were forced on us back then haunt us even to this day. We weren’t ready for it. That GFC just seemed to come right out of the blue. Right when things looked so good for us too…

I wanted to understand why these dark times kept coming back. And then I wanted to work out what I could do to prepare for the next one. And then I wanted to produce a body of knowledge that could help other people do the same.

Fortunately for me – and my family – I did find out. Here it is. I’m telling you so that you won’t repeat my mistakes in the next one. And you can know when this is too.

What 228 years of history proves

History proves there is a long-term economic cycle and it’s been going on for over 200 years.

It lasts on average 18.6 years. And when you’re in the middle of it, it can seem like everything is happening for the first time.

But it’s not the first time.

As a friend of mine pointed out to me recently – AFTER he’d seen the regularity of the cycle:

I am amazed that even with the historical evidence it’s a huge jump for many. Even once seen, often it’s not believed.

But we humans are creatures of habit. Faced with the same incentives we make the same choices. And so we go through endless boom and bust cycles.

Things might seem bad now, but we’ve been here before.

Remember the Spanish Flu? Back in 1919. They called it ‘Spanish’ because back then all the world was at war. Except Spain. Spain had decided to remain neutral.

And because they were neutral – they weren’t taking sides in the war – Spain was the only country in the world honestly reporting the effects of the new virus, or flu. (Does that sound familiar by the way?)

Between 1919 and 1921, this ‘Spanish’ flu killed tens of millions of people. Tens of millions in a world that was still reeling from the carnage of World War I.

But the economy recovered. In fact, after that we went on to have one of the greatest ever bull markets of all time. You know it today as ‘The Roaring Twenties’.

1921 was mid cycle way back then. And we’re mid cycle again now. Every mid-cycle there’s a recession or significant economic correction. Every single one. We didn’t know what might tip the world into recession beforehand, but we knew that it would happen now.

I knew the 2020 slowdown was coming. I was well positioned for it.

And we publicly said so years in advance.

This is because economies need to pause. And they need to pause in the middle of the cycle after years of expansion.

That’s just how it is. And things were starting to slow down in late 2019, before anyone had even heard of the coronavirus.

We told subscribers to be prepared. Subscriber Danny said last month:

Thank you so much for your timely updates. I lost so much money in the GFC, but this time I was in 100% cash – even in my Super. I sincerely thank you as you have saved me and my family a lot of grief.

The response to the pandemic has meant a much deeper recession than we would have likely got in its absence.

But the extent of the stimulus in response is also much larger than would have happened too. This will influence the impact of the subsequent recovery.

The second half of the cycle – the half of the cycle we are yet to go through – is still to come.

History shows the second half of the cycle is the much bigger half. When things go way over the top. And this is when the most money can be made.

You may not feel it now. But it’s coming. And you need to be in the right frame of mind to take advantage. Now is not the time to be afraid.

It’s the time to get ready.

So, for the time being take steps to protect your wealth.

Because when the good times roll back, when we start the second half of the cycle, you want to be in a position to take advantage.

As one guy put it in his recent post, also on our Facebook page :

(Akhil), this knowledge in the hands of seasoned investors and traders is worth millions.

If you didn’t know this 2020 slowdown was coming, you need to click here.

Best wishes

Akhil Patel
and your Property Share Market Economics team.