Why 18.6 years

For over 25 years Phil Anderson has studied economics and markets. And he can say categorically that the Western economies exhibit an 18.6 year real estate cycle. Generally this averages out as 14 years up and 4 years down.

The Western economies exhibit an average 18.6 year real estate/credit cycle. Generally, this averages out as 14 years up and 4 years down.

A study of US history, for example, reveals a very clear (average) 18.6 cycle in US real estate prices, measured from trough to trough or peak to peak. The actual cycle has never been shorter than 17 years, never longer than 21. According to Phil’s research, the Australian, UK and other Western countries economies follow the US at the major market moves although in Australia each state ebbs and flows differently in between.

The good news is that once you understand the real estate cycle, you can forecast it. History, we assure you, does repeat. And if you can forecast correctly, you can make money, protect your capital, make informed business and investment decisions and leave a legacy for your family.

What does Phil mean by a real estate cycle? It’s how the economy will move — and why — over time. You’ll have a guide as to when to buy real estate and when to stay out of the market. You see, it’s the land values and corresponding credit that leads the economy. You’ll understand much more about the stock market too. It is important to understand both to make the best investment decisions.

Phil’s book The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking outlines that the cyclical economic behaviour will repeat. Once you discover the fundamental law of economics — 19th Century economist David Ricardo’s Theory of Rent — you’ll see that a repeat is all but inevitable. Why? Because the underlying structure of the economy never changes, despite the endless fiddling and additions in regulations and laws.

The decline in property values in the states of Sydney and Melbourne in Australia (Dec 2017 – Sept 2019) was largely due to a restriction in credit. This did not occur because of weakened bank balance sheets but rather policy changes to manipulate a slow down. This is why it was a short term scenario and not a major crash. Indeed Australian bank balance sheets were at all-time highs.

If you are genuinely interested to learn more click here
If you are genuinely interested to learn more click here

I have learned a lot from Phil’s presentations, emails and the website. He has always been very generous in sharing the knowledge and insights acquired from his research, explaining the many influences on market movements and the fact that these movements can sometimes be forecast well in advance. Best of all he is very approachable and easy to understand. Keep up the good work Phil!
Connie, Melbourne, December 2011.

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I have learned a lot from Phil’s presentations, emails and the website. He has always been very generous in sharing the knowledge and insights acquired from his research, explaining the many influences on market movements and the fact that these movements can sometimes be forecast well in advance. Best of all he is very approachable and easy to understand. Keep up the good work Phil!
Connie, Melbourne, December 2011.

read more from our subscribers
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