6th November 2008:
Email to subscribers:
“The market is now beginning to tell us what it is going to do in 2009. At this early stage, a low early March (2009) would not surprise, then a 180 day run into early September.”
28 Apr 2010:
The China Bears Are Wrong
Bubbles never collapse whilst so many people are saying they are in one. When so many people say it, money stays out of markets. Bubbles only collapse when absolutely everyone, and their money, is ‘in’ the market. And by that stage, all the bears and cassandras are dead, bankrupt, or both. Or if there is one left, everyone laughs at him/her. No one is laughing at present-day China Cassandras, which to my mind means they will be wrong — but wrong only as to timing.
18 Jun 2011:
The Euro Will Survive
‘The Euro is not going to collapse, Greece will NEVER be permitted to default (how else will the bankers be repaid?) and the rent will go on being collected as it always has.
The (mainly French and German) banks owning the Greek debt simply do not have the capital cushion to absorb any default losses, so a Greek default just isn’t going to be allowed to happen. You will now see Greece begin to sell off government owned assets; ports, telecommunications companies, electricity producers, railways, its airports, any banks government owned and especially government owned land, of which there is billions and billions…austerity measures will continue to screw workers and taxpayers alike. If you have the cash, the present buying in these distressed areas will prove the buying of the century.’
It will be volatile in 2015. There’ll be a top out August 2017 for a reaction October 2017. Cycle is overall up to a mid cycle peak in 2019 (watch for tall buildings being finished) then the usual mid cycle slowdown into 2021.
As I understand it, for 2018 there are no hard transits this year. That suggests a very bullish year with few standout highs, but with short, sharp corrections that scare everyone. Perhaps a bit like 1958 and 1988 combined.