Describing his book ‘The secret life of Real Estate and Banking’, Phil Anderson often repeated the following phrase.
‘The one thing I learnt in the ten years researching my book is that things happened in the US to ensure the cycle repeated. Every time, and on time.’
Let me give you some examples of that, currently, for this cycle so far.
In 2016, much of the world was still looking backwards. Back to the prior collapse of 2007 to 2009. You may remember this yourself.
The embers of that time were kept alive continually and often by the Republican Party in the US and others who sought to undermine much of the Obama administrations agenda.
And then, in November the same year, Donald Trump was elected President of the United States.
Trumps election win changed all of this. He gave us a lot of new things to think about. He also brought about a different reality. Telling us in no uncertain terms what a great economy he was delivering and how great he would make things for us.
The Property Sharemarket Economics (PSE) team study the 18.6-year Real Estate Cycle, 14 years up and 4 down with a mid-cycle recession (MCR) interrupting the midpoint.
Our study of Real Estate history demonstrates that for a repeat of the cycle to occur several specific actions need to happen.
Click HERE to see what the team are watching right now.
What interests me about all that is again, how Trump has been instrumental in pushing this process further. At least on the debt side of things.
The US national debt has absolutely exploded under his leadership.
The US (Federal Government) debt has swelled by a staggering $6.6 trillion since President Donald Trump formally took office in 2017.
There’s just no other word for it.
The set up for a US crisis sometime after 2024 and into 2026/7 is certainly in play now.
Recently recall US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell welcoming inflation above the stated 2% target.
I am surmising here. I am not saying this will happen, but the set-up is there now.
Recall back to 2012 the media was obsessed about the volume of debt in the world. And now? Not a word of it.
Governments everywhere around the world do not want us to worry about debt now, so generally we do not.
Remember also: in any looming end of cycle turn, land price must start falling first. There can be no crises unless land prices begin collapsing.
Now, focus on what is happening right in front of you in the current US election environment. Trump is getting all his supporters riled up about suburban violence by touting unsubstantiated conspiracy theories (US city violence has in fact been trending down for decades).
What is not being discussed with Americans is the far more dangerous build-up of debt, into a 14-year land price surge that WILL culminate in 2026, or thereabouts.
The events leading up to this potential 2026 top will be crucial to your own personal investment and trading strategy.
Do not underestimate the incredible edge you could have at this time by being a subscriber to PSE.
We will work with you to time the land market peak and position you to grab the opportunities as they present themselves.
Do not miss out on the coming boom and protect your investments in the bust that will follow.
Click here to find out more.
Darren J Wilson
and Your Property Sharemarket Economics team
P.S – Understanding the 18.6 Year real estate cycle is your key to successful investing – click HERE now to learn more about PSE.
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